Loss in Confidence in Television Advertising

I hadn't run across this survey, but the Association of National Advertisers, in conjunction with Forrester, did a fourth biennial survey of corporate managers on television advertising, according to Advertising Age. The results aren't looking so good for the TV industry. In short, companies are looking to spend more online and less on television because in general - 62 percent of respondents - thought that television advertising had become less effective in the last two years. More than half reported that when half of all households use digital video recording, they'll cut spending on TV ads by an average 12 percent:

Eighty-seven percent of advertisers believe branded entertainment is the key to TV advertising in the coming year, and 65% of them are eager to try ads in online TV shows. And emerging technologies continue to lure marketers looking to experiment. Forty-three percent would like to try interactive TV ads; 55% are interested in ads embedded in VOD; and 32% would like to try ads attached to the set-top-box menu.

But what's bad news for television is good news for online. Maybe that's where the medium will eventually go.

Another Nail in the Network Coffin

The New York Times today is reporting about NBC planning to buy blocks of programming from outside producers. Although apparently unrelated to the writers' strike, it's just another facet of the changing business climate and how networks, long grown fat on easy money, often creatively channeled away from people who supposedly had slices of profit. But they are so cautious about revenue that they parody themselves, doing one show after another that are practically indistinguishable. They need the producers - and the writers will end up becoming their own producers, creating their own shows. Networks will be totally dependent on those who actually create programming, which reduces them to a distribution business model. This is bad news, indeed, when the Internet will increasingly make that approach obsolete. when will they first wake up? When people no longer so anxiously take meetings or do lunch?

TV Advertisers Get Taken By Their Own Strategies

The New York Times Magazine had an issue devoted to middle age, and one of the article was called TV's Silver Age. Part way in there is the following paragraph:

Every Wednesday morning, newspapers across the country run a chart of the previous week’s highest-rated television shows. Most television executives basically ignore that list. They have eyes only for subsets of those overall figures, particularly one they call “the demo.” That’s televisionspeak for viewers ranging in age from 18 to 49. The demo may seem nonsensical — after all, what does a high-school graduate have in common with someone becoming a grandmother for the first time? — but it drives the television business.

If your company does or even contemplates television advertising, read that paragraph and the three that follow. They lay out the following history of ad buying:

1. Nielsen audience ratings were once broadly based.


2. ABC, being last in the rankings, decided - strictly as a marketing tactic for itself - to emphasize the 18-to-49 demographic because the network was attracting younger audiences and it looked good.


3. Further, ABC argued that the baby boom generation was vital, because it was used to televion and was huge.


4. Advertisers bought into this and the special reports that Nielsen generated for ABC became the important numbers.
   
5. As demographics shifted, advertisers never got it through their heads that the old arguments for skewing young had less and less credibility.

As a result, the advertiers still look for young audiences without ever considering where the most consumer dollars are available to be had. If you've read through this far, here's the conclusion: folks, you have just been taken for, oh, about 20 to 30 years and have largely been wasting the money your companies entrust you to wisely spend.

How do I, a non-advertising expert, figure I can say this? Because I'm willing to look at the numbers. Now some good news: just because you've done everything one particular way for so long doesn't mean that you can't switch strategies. Here are some steps to at least start moving in the right direction:

1. Redefine your market segments. Make advertising segmentation match your customer segmentation as much as possible. If advertisers refuse, mutter "online ads" and the names of competitors, and that should make their spines bend over backwards.


2. Do some research to show how much per capita spending in your category happens in each of the segments.


3. Create a segment weighting factor. If, for example, 30-to-40 year olds buy represent 40% of your sales, the factor would be 0.40.


4. Compare average spending by your customers to the appropriate segment spending as a ratio. The higher the ratio, the more invested in your company the cusotmers are and the more important they should be to you and where you might be looking for more.


5. For any program, multiply the number of audience members in a given segment by the average category spend. Now you have a first approximation of how much money there is for your type of product watching that program.

Sure, "real" analytics would get far more complex, but you don't need to have a Ph.D. in mathematics to start understanding what is going on. Don't get snowed; get smart.

Lure of Lurid Billboards

The Washington Post ran a piece on how digitally-enhanced billboards have become an advertising powerhouse again, at least so far as billing goes. Most of the article will stand on its own, but one point I thought was interesting:

Though outdoor revenue still is a small piece of the ad revenue pie - CBS Outdoor made less than one-quarter of the revenue of CBS's television network last year - it is growing faster than every other traditional ad medium. At CBS Outdoor, 2006 operating income was up 21 percent over the previous year, the biggest gain of any CBS division.

But consider for a moment the relative dynamics. Television is a heck of a lot more expensive to produce than a client's ad, even if the billboards do have whizzbang effects. So maybe the comparative revenue isn't as telling as the amount of profit that stays in the corporate pockets.