No matter what industries you find interesting, if you are remotely connected to manufacturing - professionally, economically, or politically - you should read
this article at ExtremeTech.com. Mark Hachman opens his piece as follows:
About ten years ago, I was given a tour of a Visioneer scanner factory in San Jose. Even though I knew that only global companies like Toyota could essentially afford to build a car through an almost entirely automated process, I was nevertheless amazed at how many people were required to actually assemble a scanner. And I'm not talking about management, but hands-on "put this widget there" assembly.
That's the intellectual setting. The physical location, though, is Gigabyte Technology, one of the big Taiwanese manufacturers of motherboards, a key component in PCs. Although there is enormous room for consolidation in the industry, the company claims about 10 percent market share, with $1.41 billion revenue and 1,249 patent applications on file. It also builds PC power supplies (a fiercely competitive market), complete computer systems, and cell phones. And it does a whole lot of work by hand, as you can see in the
pictures that Hachman took.
What makes this so important for business is that manufacturing, on which all of business ultimately rests, for years has seen a tug of war between automation and cheap labor to keep expenses down. Either a company would use computers and robotic approaches to building and assembly, or they'd try to find ways to drop the cost of having people do tasks. In the U.S., automation has, I think, been the predominant force because it's difficult to get people to work ever more cheaply. But in Asia, in one of the most high-tech endeavors you could possible imagine, at one of the globally key companies making a foundation product from PCs, the work is often manual. In other words, the slight savings (because labor, at least in high tech, is typically 5 percent of the total cost of goods) that companies see relies on incredibly low costs of labor. Not slightly lower, but monumentally so.
What happens when people get tired of having their hours subsidize corporations, particularly when they're making the very products that are symbols of economic success? China is already seeing an increase in the visibility of organized labor - look at this BusinessWeek
interview with China's 80-year-old All-China Federation of Trade Unions with 137 million members that wants to unionize ... Wal-Mart.
If groups in
China can start pushing like this, it could happen elsewhere in Asia. Add the increasing pressure for Beijing to allow it's currency to trade at more realistic values (an increase up ward of 40 percent), and there could be problems for companies outsourcing their manufacturing.
With so much actual work done by hand - and I've heard from a number of sources that China in particular lags by far in factory technology - then that dependence might balloon the impact of increased labor costs. That's already happending with qualified IT help (as I learned in a Computerworld
article about two minutes after posting this piece). Finding people is extraordinarily tough and salaries there are climbing 20 percent to 30 percent a year with high turnover. That means you can add additional amounts for recruiting and training that go right out the window with the departing employees.
Companies have jumped on the outsourcing bandwagon without considering the true costs of doing so: inescapable dependency on others for fundamental business processes, increased inventory costs when goods take 50 to 70 days to arrive by boat, affect of leaping fuel prices on shipping expenses, and now extensive sensitivity to labor prices.
I get a sense that there is a disaster in the making that has been building for years, and companies will only become aware of their vulnerabilities when they feel themselves beaten up.
Labels: automation, gigabyte, manufacturing, motherboards, outsourcing, PCs, Taiwan