From the what-were-they-thinking, department, we have the latest insanity at Merrill Lynch. A big producer of the securitized mortgage deals, the company has already written down $8.4 billion in two clumps. The powers that be there talked about some number of billions, and then almost doubled it two week later. CEO Stanley O'Neal has made a public mea culpa, but as one analyst on NPR said Friday night, they should have warned everyone the minute they knew, and not delayed.
Now, according to the New York Times, O'Neal floated the ide aof a merger with Wachovia without talking to Merrill's board - which would mean a sale at a low point of the stock, forcing the shareholders to bail out management - and
the board is ready to fire him. It's certainly drama, but how about the culpability of the board? Was there no oversight? Did they ever ask about the degree of risk the institution was taking on a regular basis? I realize that such things can be difficult for a board to uncover. AFter all, it's getting the numbers from management, and given how difficult it apparently was for many to understand just how shaky some of the assets were, they probably would have essentially said, "All is well."
But at this point, it's obvious the even the largest and most respected corporations are capable of screwing up on a level that is almost inconceivable. Everyone in the business community should remember that capitalism is essentially the combination of two activities: gambling and mitigation. You take risks to make more money, and then you try to minimize the downside and the possibility of an explosion. But as I quoted from a commentary,
many people in these institutions never face the essential instability of statistically unlikely activities that happen on a regular basis.
Or, as someone in risk management recently told me, there was the head mathematician in a financial business he once worked for. There was some big loss, and the CEO said, "What can we do to keep this from ever happening again?" The mathematician said, "Sell refrigerators." When you can calculate demand, pretty well know your costs and what you can get, you can make safer decisions. But you won't make as much money. The CEO of that company had forgot that they are gamblers, and, apparently, people at Merrill, and virtually all other financial institutions and investors, have been forgetting that as well.
Labels: board, Merrill Lynch, O'Neal