Obama Administration Making the Banker's Error

The Obama administration is already finding itself having to defend its economic projections of a strong economic recovery. We're still in the middle of a mess that stemmed in no small part from the refusal of bankers to consider the worst case scenario, from admitting that things could be far worse. So why is the current administration doing the same? For the same reason: It is unpleasant to ask people face reality.

But Obama was elected on the idea of a change in the past and some respect for the truth ... at least, that is the marketing angle his staff used. The only way to escape the danger of the overly optimistic is to use a range of scenarios: good, realistic, and bad. The bad one has to be really bad, take into account the worst that could happen. The realistic should be just that. Presenting only one scenario that tends toward the optimistic is to whistle past danger. To do what has been foolish in the past only continues the foolishness.