Waiting For the Shoe to Drop
We usually hear that we should wait for the other shoe to drop - that one event has happened, and its completion will catch up with us as certainly as reading glasses chase the middle-aged. But there is an assumption that people are cognizant enough to recognize that forces beyond their control are at work. This comes from experience and an interest in avoiding as much pain and suffering as possible.
Unfortunately, business has become an area where people prefer to remain blissfully unaware becasue they're after the Big Kill. They think that some things are too good to be true, but they want them anyway, and so plunge head first and will hear nothing of the rocks sitting at the bottom of the shallow pool below.
It would seem foolish that all these people with a library of degrees among them and more money than people can conceive of move on in such ways. But we are all creatures of emotion, and the dark side that drives greed and desire is exactly the part that harbors other weaknesses. So they ignore reason and move ahead, no matter what their experience tells them.
That's why we're waiting for the first shoe to drop - or at least for the echoes to catch up with us. Everyone seems to be watching each other for a clue. The US market is down, so Asia and Europe reacts, but then the US says, "Well, maybe it's not that bad after all." But Bank of America's earnings are down something like 95%. This is not the sign of a mild recession, but rather the a sign that something is seriously wrong. The banks have made unbelievably foolish mistakes and they now want to hide under a rock and not take chances. However, if the financial institutions that form the foundation of our economic system are cracking, what are the chances that everyone else will be if not well, then only mildly affected? Just how big a shoe - or boot - is waiting for its time to fall?
Unfortunately, business has become an area where people prefer to remain blissfully unaware becasue they're after the Big Kill. They think that some things are too good to be true, but they want them anyway, and so plunge head first and will hear nothing of the rocks sitting at the bottom of the shallow pool below.
It would seem foolish that all these people with a library of degrees among them and more money than people can conceive of move on in such ways. But we are all creatures of emotion, and the dark side that drives greed and desire is exactly the part that harbors other weaknesses. So they ignore reason and move ahead, no matter what their experience tells them.
That's why we're waiting for the first shoe to drop - or at least for the echoes to catch up with us. Everyone seems to be watching each other for a clue. The US market is down, so Asia and Europe reacts, but then the US says, "Well, maybe it's not that bad after all." But Bank of America's earnings are down something like 95%. This is not the sign of a mild recession, but rather the a sign that something is seriously wrong. The banks have made unbelievably foolish mistakes and they now want to hide under a rock and not take chances. However, if the financial institutions that form the foundation of our economic system are cracking, what are the chances that everyone else will be if not well, then only mildly affected? Just how big a shoe - or boot - is waiting for its time to fall?
Permalink posted by Erik Sherman at 6:05 PM
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