Market Analyst Suggests Explosive Growth for E-Books

Many of us have been wondering just how e-book sales, particularly with Amazon's Kindle, have been going and just how they could change the industry landscape. There's an article on that very topic:

Pacific Crest analyst Steve Weinstein argues that global e-book sales at Amazon could reach $2.5 billion by the year 2012.

To figure this, Weinstein starts with the handiest analogue: iPod and MP3 player sales. He notes that between 2003 and 2008, digital music sales grew from 2 percent of the US market to 33 percent, largely on the back of Apple's ( NSDQ: AAPL) twin offerings. He doesn't expect the Kindle/e-books to track as fast, but he does think the market is off to a strong start already, and that the cycle will pick up steam as the Kindle comes down in price (that's already started) and the ecosystem matures. He also suspects the consumers will be drawn to the instant gratification aspect of Kindle titles, as well as the lower price per book.

MP3 music and e-books aren't exactly the same. People had wanted to buy single tracks for years and not be forced to purchase an entire album for one or two songs. However, they are analogous and the logical is reasonable, I think. Read the article and pay particular attention to the projections he's making for Amazon's profits. Part of that comes out of far lower costs (no manufacturing, warehousing, or shelving), but I wonder how much would come out of the pockets of publishers and authors.

An E-Paper Roundup

Technology can have such an impact on the world that sometimes you need to keep in touch with new developments if you want your head to stay above water. I think e-paper is such a technology for the publishing business. This Kindle is just the beginning: these low-power, high contrast screens can start putting content anywhere:

E-paper displays are already showing up in consumer applications, even though consumers may not recognize them. Jennifer Colegrove, an analyst at market researcher iSuppli Corp., identified several product categories in addition to e-book readers, including displays for wearable and carryable products like watch dials, cell phones, credit cards and security-system cards; instrumentation applications like the capacity meter on Lexar JumpDrive USB drives; and signage. Point-of-sale devices like electronic shelf labels can be updated remotely, Colegrove explains, or promotional signage can be updated by time of day -- breakfast specials in the morning, for example, and dinner in the evening.

That means almost anything could display content, possibly creating entirely new markets. Can you imagine writing marketing copy to wrap around a product? I'd recommend taking a look at this Computerworld article.

Is It Delta Sky Good?

Nothing heavy - just a bit of humor from the Onion in the satircal form of a supposed letter from the editor in chief of Delta Sky magazine. Do you get the sense that maybe someone's query was rejected?

Young Readers Have "News Fatigue"

AP did a study - and wrote a story about it (and provided a link to the study) - that has some great insights into the news reading habits of younger (18 to 34) people, and points to some ways of addressing where their preferences and news delivery don't connect. The work was done by anthropologists in an ethnographic study:

• Overwhelmed by facts. Younger readers are drowning in information and have trouble navigating their way to deeper background and ultimate resolution of stories.


• Direct people. There needs to be a variety of content that satisfies consumer needs, with links that clearly get people to the relevant news they want.


• Old models don't work. Existing ways of packaging news simply don't work for younger audiences, and the new "let the user decide" self-aggregation approaches aren't any more satisfying for the audience than for the news organizations.


• Constant grazing. Younger readers "consume news across a multitude of platforms and sources, all day, constantly. That includes online video, blogs, social networks, mobile devices, RSS, word of mouth, Web portals, and search engines.


• Too many headlines. People are spending too much time "above the fold" (using the newspaper term) and actually see a problem in keeping up with news when everything becomes headlines and quick updates. A 24-hour news cycle produces excess of surface and a depth deficit.


• Repetition begets repulsion. People lose interest when the same stories get repeated and there is no development.


• Email is good - for some things. An email message is a natural vehicle for an update, and it's important to give people a way to get to depth from there.


• Readers are bored. As a result of seeing the same things in the same way, they keep moving from one place to another. It's important to give them ways to "quickly decide whether a news environment merits further exploration."


• In-depth links often aren't. Clicking on links for greater depth in stories often resulted in "the same content from a different 'news brand,' or on a different platform."


• Multitasking audience. Younger people tend to multitask when looking at news stories, so it takes more to catch their attention long enough to get involved with greater depth information.


• Learned helplessness. People find themselves feeling overwhelmed by news that they don't know what to do with, and feeling that it's all negative anyway, which makes them want to tune out. Satirical takes on the news in a way that at least lets them laugh while delivering information, providing an important emotional balance. "[Howard Stern] talks about things in a way I can relate to. I don’t need an anchor to tell me a script. I get it. For a lot of news it’s a case of if we don’t laugh, we’ll cry. I’d rather trust a satirist than a wax-faced suit on network news."


• Passive acceptance. Because of the emotional flailing, people were more likely to passively receive rather than actively seek news.


• Using emotional understanding to structure delivery. "The implication for the news industry is not to flood the marketplace with repetitive content, but to counter the audience’s anxiety and overload with compelling content delivered in innovative ways, whether it be with technology or tongue in cheek. It is important to keep in mind that learned helplessness is a chronic condition that can be reversed."


• Under promise and over deliver. Television trends show that younger audiences want things that deliver more than they appear to. That's a big reason why the cable fake news shows do well, because they start with entertainment, but actually dig into real questions that regular media often passes up.


• Get to the end. Story resolution is key to these people, with sports and entertainment being important, for one reason, because they offer a beginning, middle, and end. (Of course, the danger of using that sort of storytelling in other areas is that you could force journalists' narratives onto facts and ignore their actual implications.)

Here's my own digested summary. Younger people have different habits, but those are reinforced in unproductive ways by writers, editors, producers, and publishers who assume that they aren't interested in depth. The real problem is that navigation is poorly developed and labeled, and that more doesn't necessarily mean more depth, just more of the same.

The report is worth reading, because it also has examples of how some news operations are trying to address these issues. You need to know because this becomes a tool in many ways for a freelance writer: ammunition to help push for deeper reporting and longer stories on the web, an approach to electronic newsletters, and a help to structure your own reporting and story telling, to mention a few.

News and Photo Copyrights

There are some significant questions as to whether the press has a right to post the photos of the woman who allegedly had a sex for money relationship with former New York governor Elliot Spitzer. In my FotoCounty blog, I mention a piece in Photo District News as well as an angle that I haven't seen yet covered.