Planning for the Recession

There's talk about a recession, with experts disagreeing as to whether it will happen, it is happening, or already has happened. That's my way of saying that there is always an economic situation. It may be deemed "good," "bad," or "indifferent." No matter what the description, however, that doesn't mean the specifics will be good for you and your business. I've talked to writers who found that their businesses took big hits in the post dot-com recession of 2000 and 2001. I know other writers who saw their businesses take off. At any time, some people will do well and some will do badly.

The difference is that, whether consciously or not, the ones that profit have business strategies matching the conditions. Those that lose have incompatible strategies. Really economically successful writers are aware of changing conditions and adapt their approach as needed. To do that, you have to see that things are changing and then find what will work. That may take some experimentation, but in the end, you can do it.

As an example, let's look at just some of the things happening now. The whole world seems to be slipping into a slump. Banks and other lenders are taking a beating; look at Bank of America, which saw a 95% drop in earnings. The home housing market is slow. Hollywood writers are still on strike. Just these few facts would suggest the following:

• Trying to diversify by going after foreign markets won't necessarily be a help, though Americans might still intelligently make some efforts in this direction because of the current exchange rates.


• Financial services companies may be a poor choice, because many will be cutting corners to restore earnings and regain their stock prices.


• Covering consumer real estate will be tricky, because those in the area will be spending a lot less, which means they will be less interesting for the time being to advertisers, making it difficult for advertisers to justify spending too much on advertising.


• Hollywood has pretty much ground to a halt because of the writers' strike. But signs are that talks may soon restart, and if the two sides come to an agreement, there will be overtime work to get projects moving again. And then, maybe a year down the line (possibly more, depending on how long it takes productions to move from one stage to the next). If you write about entertainment, you might start a particularly heavy marketing phase in a few months. (After the obligatory article on the What The Strike Meant.)

One professional I know said in an online discussion thread that he's concentrating on blue chip clients. That could be wise - assuming that you've got your writing chops to a point that you can satisfy such clients. But remember that even blue chip clients - Bank of America would normally be considered one - can have problems. Read the business news, pay attention to all of the clues, and think about what each implies, and how they all connect.